Fertilizer market seen reaching $248B by 2034

By AI, Created 10:32 AM UTC, May 20, 2026, /AGP/ – IMARC Group projects the global fertilizer market will grow from $187.9 billion in 2025 to $248 billion by 2034, driven by food security needs, subsidies and precision agriculture. Chemical fertilizers and dry products remain the biggest segments, while biofertilizers and liquid inputs are growing faster.

Why it matters: - Global fertilizer demand sits at the center of food security, farm productivity and agricultural policy. - IMARC Group says the market will add $60.1 billion in value by 2034, signaling steady long-term demand for crop inputs. - The forecast reflects pressure to feed a larger population with less cropland per person and higher yield requirements.

What happened: - IMARC Group said the global fertilizer market was valued at $187.90 billion in 2025. - The firm projects the market will reach $248.00 billion by 2034. - IMARC Group expects a 3.04% CAGR from 2026 to 2034. - The analysis was published May 7, 2026. - The report says chemical fertilizers and dry fertilizers remain the largest market segments. - The company provided a sample report request for more detail.

The details: - Global food demand is a primary growth driver, with the world expected to feed about 9.7 billion people by 2050. - IMARC Group says global food production will need to rise 50% to 60% from 2019 levels by 2050. - Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes by 2050 from 2.1 billion today, the report says. - Cropland area per person has declined about 20% between 2001 and 2023. - India, China and Brazil support fertilizer demand through subsidies and food security programs. - India allocated INR 1.64 lakh crore in fertilizer subsidies in FY2025. - Brazil kept zero import tariffs on fertilizers and imported about 45.5 million metric tons in 2025. - China’s agricultural input support programs help sustain high application rates. - Precision agriculture is also shaping demand, with satellite AI mapping detecting nutrient stress with 92% accuracy. - Variable-rate fertilization technology had been deployed across 12 million hectares globally by 2025. - The report says this shift supports higher-value products such as controlled-release fertilizers, liquid fertigation inputs and nano fertilizers. - Chemical fertilizers held 66.6% of the market in 2025, or about $125.1 billion. - Dry fertilizers held 81.8% of the market in 2025, or about $153.7 billion. - Asia Pacific held 52.5% of revenue share in 2025. - Latin America is projected to be the fastest-growing region at about 3.8% CAGR through 2034. - Biofertilizers are projected to be the fastest-growing product type at about 4.8% CAGR through 2034. - Liquid fertilizers are projected to grow at about 4.2% CAGR through 2034. - Controlled-release fertilizers are projected to grow at about 6.8% CAGR.

Between the lines: - The report frames fertilizer demand as structurally supported, not cyclical, because basic nutrient inputs remain essential for grain production. - Subsidies and tariff policy are helping keep demand elevated in major consuming countries, even when market pricing would suggest slower growth. - The faster growth in biofertilizers, liquid fertilizers and controlled-release products suggests a market shift toward efficiency, compliance and premium formulations rather than a collapse in overall fertilizer use. - Low-carbon ammonia, nano fertilizers and digital agriculture point to a longer transition in how nutrients are produced and applied. - Raw material costs remain a major risk because natural gas accounts for 70% to 80% of gray ammonia costs. - Environmental regulations could also cap growth, especially where nitrogen runoff and water quality are under tighter scrutiny. - The EU Nitrates Directive limits nitrogen application to 170 kg N/ha in vulnerable zones.

What’s next: - IMARC Group expects Asia Pacific to remain the market’s center of gravity through 2034. - Latin America is likely to post faster growth as Brazil expands production and keeps import tariffs low. - Producers are likely to keep investing in low-carbon ammonia, controlled-release products and digital application tools. - The report suggests regulatory pressure and energy costs will remain key variables for future margins and supply.

The bottom line: - Fertilizer demand is still expanding, but the growth story is shifting toward efficiency, sustainability and policy support rather than simple volume growth.